Decentralized peak power control based on short-term forecast using modified Kalman filter

This paper proposes a method of short term load forecasting with limited data, applicable even at 11 kV substation levels where total power demand is relatively low and somewhat random and weather data are usually not available as in most developing countries. Kalman filtering technique has been modified and used to forecast daily and hourly load. Planning generation and interstate energy exchange schedule at load dispatch centre and decentralized Demand Side Management at substation level are intended to be carried out with the help of this short term load forecasting technique especially to achieve peak power control without enforcing load-shedding.

The Indian Ocean forecast system

In order to meet the ever growing demand for the prediction of oceanographic parametres in the Indian Ocean for a variety of applications, the Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS) has recently set-up an operational ocean forecast system, viz. the Indian Ocean Forecast System (INDOFOS). This fully automated system, based on a state-of-the-art ocean general circulation model issues six-hourly forecasts of the sea-surface temperature, surface currents and depths of the mixed layer and the thermocline up to five-days of lead time. A brief account of INDOFOS and a statistical validation of the forecasts of these parametres using in situ and remote sensing data are presented in this article. The accuracy of the sea-surface temperature forecasts by the system is high in the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea, whereas it is moderate in the equatorial Indian Ocean. On the other hand, the accuracy of the depth of the thermocline and the isothermal layers and surface current forecasts are higher near the equatorial region, while it is relatively lower in the Bay of Bengal.

The Skill of ECMWF Medium-Range Forecasts during the Year of Tropical Convection 2008

This study uses the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model-generated high-resolution 10-day-long predictions for the Year of Tropical Convection (YOTC) 2008. Precipitation forecast skills of the model over the tropics are evaluated against the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) estimates. It has been shown that the model was able to capture the monthly to seasonal mean features of tropical convection reasonably. Northward propagation of convective bands over the Bay of Bengal was also forecasted realistically up to 5 days in advance, including the onset phase of the monsoon during the first half of June 2008. However, large errors exist in the daily datasets especially for longer lead times over smaller domains. For shorter lead times (less than 4-5 days), forecast errors are much smaller over the oceans than over land. Moreover, the rate of increase of errors with lead time is rapid over the oceans and is confined to the regions where observed precipitation shows large day-to-day variability. It has been shown that this rapid growth of errors over the oceans is related to the spatial pattern of near-surface air temperature. This is probably due to the one-way air-sea interaction in the atmosphere-only model used for forecasting. While the prescribed surface temperature over the oceans remain realistic at shorter lead times, the pattern and hence the gradient of the surface temperature is not altered with change in atmospheric parameters at longer lead times. It has also been shown that the ECMWF model had considerable difficulties in forecasting very low and very heavy intensity of precipitation over South Asia. The model has too few grids with ``zero'' precipitation and heavy (>40 mm day(-1)) precipitation. On the other hand, drizzle-like precipitation is too frequent in the model compared to that in the TRMM datasets. Further analysis shows that a major source of error in the ECMWF precipitation forecasts is the diurnal cycle over the South Asian monsoon region. The peak intensity of precipitation in the model forecasts over land (ocean) appear about 6 (9) h earlier than that in the observations. Moreover, the amplitude of the diurnal cycle is much higher in the model forecasts compared to that in the TRMM estimates. It has been seen that the phase error of the diurnal cycle increases with forecast lead time. The error in monthly mean 3-hourly precipitation forecasts is about 2-4 times of the error in the daily mean datasets. Thus, effort should be given to improve the phase and amplitude forecast of the diurnal cycle of precipitation from the model.

Real-time multipurpose reservoir operation: a case study / Exploitation en temps reacuteel d'un reservoir agrave buts multiples: eacutetude d'un cas

A real-time operational methodology has been developed for multipurpose reservoir operation for irrigation and hydropower generation with application to the Bhadra reservoir system in the state of Karnataka, India. The methodology consists of three phases of computer modelling. In the first phase, the optimal release policy for a given initial storage and inflow is determined using a stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) model. Streamflow forecasting using an adaptive AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model constitutes the second phase. A real-time simulation model is developed in the third phase using the forecast inflows of phase 2 and the operating policy of phase 1. A comparison of the optimal monthly real-time operation with the historical operation demonstrates the relevance, applicability and the relative advantage of the proposed methodology.

Thermophilic fungi: An assessment of their potential for growth in soil

An attempt has been made to forecast the potential of thermophilic fungi to grow in soil in the laboratory and in the field in the presence of a predominantly mesophilic fungal flora at usual temperature. The respiratory rate of thermophilic fungi was markedly responsive to changes in temperature, but that of mesophilic fungi was relatively independent of such changes. This suggested that in a thermally fluctuating environment, thermophilic fungi may be at a physiological disadvantage compared to mesophilic fungi. In mixed cultures in soil plates, thermophilic fungi outgrew mesophilic fungi under a fluctuating temperature regime only when the amplitude of the fluctuating temperatures was small and approached their temperature optima for growth. An antibody probe was used to detect the activity of native or an introduced strain of a thermophilic fungus, Thermomyces lanuginosus, under field conditions. The results suggest that although widespread, thermophilic fungi are ordinarily not an active component of soil microflora. Their presence in soil most likely may be the result of the aerial dissemination of propagules from composting plant material.

Prediction of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall using a state-of-the-art coupled ocean-atmosphere model

A state-of-the-art model of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system, the climate forecast system (CFS), from the National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), USA, has been ported onto the PARAM Padma parallel computing system at the Centre for Development of Advanced Computing (CDAC), Bangalore and retrospective predictions for the summer monsoon (June-September) season of 2009 have been generated, using five initial conditions for the atmosphere and one initial condition for the ocean for May 2009. Whereas a large deficit in the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR; June-September) was experienced over the Indian region (with the all-India rainfall deficit by 22% of the average), the ensemble average prediction was for above-average rainfall during the summer monsoon. The retrospective predictions of ISMR with CFS from NCEP for 1981-2008 have been analysed. The retrospective predictions from NCEP for the summer monsoon of 1994 and that from CDAC for 2009 have been compared with the simulations for each of the seasons with the stand-alone atmospheric component of the model, the global forecast system (GFS), and observations. It has been shown that the simulation with GFS for 2009 showed deficit rainfall as observed. The large error in the prediction for the monsoon of 2009 can be attributed to a positive Indian Ocean Dipole event seen in the prediction from July onwards, which was not present in the observations. This suggests that the error could be reduced with improvement of the ocean model over the equatorial Indian Ocean.

Forecasting rain for groundnut farmers�how good is good enough

: We illustrate how climatological information about adverse weather events and meteorological forecasts (when available) can be used to decide between alternative strategies so as to maximize the long-term average returns for rainfed groundnut in semi-arid parts of Karnataka, We show that until the skill of the forecast, i.e. probability of an adverse event occurring when it is forecast, is above a certain threshold, the forecast has no impact on the optimum strategy, This threshold is determined by the loss in yield due to the adverse weather event and the cost of the mitigatory measures, For the specific case of groundnut, it is found that while for combating some pests/diseases, climatological information is adequate, for others a forecast of sufficient skill would have a significant impact on the productivity.

Impact of satellite observed microwave SST on the simulation of tropical cyclones

The impact of realistic representation of sea surface temperature (SST) on the numerical simulation of track and intensity of tropical cyclones formed over the north Indian Ocean is studied using the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model. We have selected two intense tropical cyclones formed over the Bay of Bengal for studying the SST impact. Two different sets of SSTs were used in this study: one from TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) satellite and other is the weekly averaged Reynold's SST analysis from National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). WRF simulations were conducted using the Reynold's and TMI SST as model boundary condition for the two cyclone cases selected. The TMI SST which has a better temporal and spatial resolution showed sharper gradient when compared to the Reynold's SST. The use of TMI SST improved the WRF cyclone intensity prediction when compared to that using Reynold's SST for both the cases studied. The improvements in intensity were mainly due to the improved prediction of surface latent and sensible heat fluxes. The use of TMI SST in place of Reynold's SST improved cyclone track prediction for Orissa super cyclone but slightly degraded track prediction for cyclone Mala. The present modeling study supports the well established notion that the horizontal SST gradient is one of the major driving forces for the intensification and movement of tropical cyclones over the Indian Ocean.

Exploring use of climate information for optimal design of water resources infrastructure

We conducted surveys of fire and fuels managers at local, regional, and national levels to gain insights into decision processes and information flows in wildfire management. Survey results in the form of fire managers’ decision calendars show how climate information needs vary seasonally, over space, and through the organizational network, and help determine optimal points for introducing climate information and forecasts into decision processes. We identified opportunities to use climate information in fire management, including seasonal to interannual climate forecasts at all organizational levels, to improve the targeting of fuels treatments and prescribed burns, the positioning and movement of initial attack resources, and staffing and budgeting decisions. Longer-term (5–10 years) outlooks also could be useful at the national level in setting budget and research priorities. We discuss these opportunities and examine the kinds of organizational changes that could facilitate effective use of existing climate information and climate forecast capabilities.

Classification of road damage due to earthquakes

Earthquakes cause massive road damage which in turn causes adverse effects on the society. Previous studies have quantified the damage caused to residential and commercial buildings; however, not many studies have been conducted to quantify road damage caused by earthquakes. In this study, an attempt has been made to propose a new scale to classify and quantify the road damage due to earthquakes based on the data collected from major earthquakes in the past. The proposed classification for road damage due to earthquake is called as road damage scale (RDS). Earthquake details such as magnitude, distance of road damage from the epicenter, focal depth, and photographs of damaged roads have been collected from various sources with reported modified Mercalli intensity (MMI). The widely used MMI scale is found to be inadequate to clearly define the road damage. The proposed RDS is applied to various reported road damage and reclassified as per RDS. The correlation between RDS and earthquake parameters of magnitude, epicenter distance, hypocenter distance, and combination of magnitude with epicenter and hypocenter distance has been studied using available data. It is observed that the proposed RDS correlates well with the available earthquake data when compared with the MMI scale. Among several correlations, correlation between RDS and combination of magnitude and epicenter distance is appropriate. Summary of these correlations, their limitations, and the applicability of the proposed scale to forecast road damages and to carry out vulnerability analysis in urban areas is presented in the paper.

On the role of cloud adjustment time scale in simulating precipitation with Relaxed Arakawa-Schubert convection scheme

The precipitation by Relaxed Arakawa-Schubert cumulus parameterization in a General Circulation Model (GCM) is sensitive to the choice of relaxation parameter or specified cloud adjustment time scale. In the present study, we examine sensitivity of simulated precipitation to the choice of cloud adjustment time scale (tau(adj)) over different parts of the tropics using National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Seasonal Forecast Model (SFM) during June-September. The results show that a single specified value of tau(adj) performs best only over a particular region and different values are preferred over different parts of the world. To find a relation between tau(adj) and cloud depth (convective activity) we choose six regions over the tropics. Based on the observed relation between outgoing long-wave radiation and tau(adj), we propose a linear cloud-type dependent relaxation parameter to be used in the model. The simulations over most parts of the tropics show improved results due to this newly formulated cloud-type dependent relaxation parameter.

A generalized geo-hazard warning system

An automated geo-hazard warning system is the need of the hour. It is integration of automation in hazard evaluation and warning communication. The primary objective of this paper is to explain a geo-hazard warning system based on Internet-resident concept and available cellular mobile infrastructure that makes use of geo-spatial data. The functionality of the system is modular in architecture having input, understanding, expert, output and warning modules. Thus, the system provides flexibility in integration between different types of hazard evaluation and communication systems leading to a generalized hazard warning system. The developed system has been validated for landslide hazard in Indian conditions. It has been realized through utilization of landslide causative factors, rainfall forecast from NASA's TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) and knowledge base of landslide hazard intensity map and invokes the warning as warranted. The system evaluated hazard commensurate with expert evaluation within 5-6 % variability, and the warning message permeability has been found to be virtually instantaneous, with a maximum time lag recorded as 50 s, minimum of 10 s. So it could be concluded that a novel and stand-alone system for dynamic hazard warning has been developed and implemented. Such a handy system could be very useful in a densely populated country where people are unaware of the impending hazard.

Data assimilation using ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF) in ROMS model for Indian Ocean

Study of Oceans dynamics and forecast is crucial as it influences the regional climate and other marine activities. Forecasting oceanographic states like sea surface currents, Sea surface temperature (SST) and mixed layer depth at different time scales is extremely important for these activities. These forecasts are generated by various ocean general circulation models (OGCM). One such model is the Regional Ocean Modelling System (ROMS). Though ROMS can simulate several features of ocean, it cannot reproduce the thermocline of the ocean properly. Solution to this problem is to incorporates data assimilation (DA) in the model. DA system using Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (ETKF) has been developed for ROMS model to improve the accuracy of the model forecast. To assimilate data temperature and salinity from ARGO data has been used as observation. Assimilated temperature and salinity without localization shows oscillations compared to the model run without assimilation for India Ocean. Same was also found for u and v-velocity fields. With localization we found that the state variables are diverging within the localization scale.

Flux Transport Dynamos: From Kinematics to Dynamics

Over the past several decades, Flux-Transport Dynamo (FTD) models have emerged as a popular paradigm for explaining the cyclic nature of solar magnetic activity. Their defining characteristic is the key role played by the mean meridional circulation in transporting magnetic flux and thereby regulating the cycle period. Most FTD models also incorporate the so-called Babcock-Leighton (BL) mechanism in which the mean poloidal field is produced by the emergence and subsequent dispersal of bipolar active regions. This feature is well grounded in solar observations and provides a means for assimilating observed surface flows and fields into the models in order to forecast future solar activity, to identify model biases, and to clarify the underlying physical processes. Furthermore, interpreting historical sunspot records within the context of FTD models can potentially provide insight into why cycle features such as amplitude and duration vary and what causes extreme events such as Grand Minima. Though they are generally robust in a modeling sense and make good contact with observed cycle features, FTD models rely on input physics that is only partially constrained by observation and that neglects the subtleties of convective transport, convective field generation, and nonlinear feedbacks. Here we review the formulation and application of FTD models and assess our current understanding of the input physics based largely on complementary 3D MHD simulations of solar convection, dynamo action, and flux emergence.

Use of Data Driven Techniques for Short Lead Time Streamflow Forecasting in Mahanadi basin

Streamflow forecasts at daily time scale are necessary for effective management of water resources systems. Typical applications include flood control, water quality management, water supply to multiple stakeholders, hydropower and irrigation systems. Conventionally physically based conceptual models and data-driven models are used for forecasting streamflows. Conceptual models require detailed understanding of physical processes governing the system being modeled. Major constraints in developing effective conceptual models are sparse hydrometric gauge network and short historical records that limit our understanding of physical processes. On the other hand, data-driven models rely solely on previous hydrological and meteorological data without directly taking into account the underlying physical processes. Among various data driven models Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) are most widely used techniques. The present study assesses performance of ARIMA and ANNs methods in arriving at one-to seven-day ahead forecast of daily streamflows at Basantpur streamgauge site that is situated at upstream of Hirakud Dam in Mahanadi river basin, India. The ANNs considered include Feed-Forward back propagation Neural Network (FFNN) and Radial Basis Neural Network (RBNN). Daily streamflow forecasts at Basantpur site find use in management of water from Hirakud reservoir. (C) 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.